Common Tragedies

Thoughts on Environmental Economics

EIA AEO minutia of the day

Posted by Rich Sweeney on April 28, 2009

One of the annoying features of the EIA’s Annual Energy Outlook is that it has to model policies exactly as the law is currently written. For example, even though the production tax credit for renewable generation had been extended almost every years since its inception (after the requisite political brinksmanship), these extensions are only on an annual basis, so EIA assumes they expire when it forecasts what the world is going to look like in the future.

Which is why I was surprised to come across this footnote in Table 13.5 (Regional RPS requirements), in the AEO 2009 Assumptions documentation: “California is not projected to meet RPS targets because of funding limitations.”

Now I’ve expressed skepticism of California’s state RPS in the past, but it certainly says something when the hyperliteral folks at AEO call your bluff.

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